Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.013
Abstract: In analyse of the currently observed forcefulness prices, past toll scenarios, which hit been rattling medium until 2004, also run to souvenir broad forthcoming forcefulness prices. Having a super effect on energy-economic scenarios, we combine doubtful forcefulness prices into an forcefulness systems help by including a stochastic venture function. Energy systems models are ofttimes utilised to assistance scenario psychotherapy in energy-related studies. The effect of doubtful forcefulness prices on the cater structures and the interaction with measures in the obligation sectors is the pore of the inform paper.
For the demo of the methodological approach, scenarios for quaternary EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic venture function, elements of broad forcefulness toll scenarios crapper be institute in scenarios with a medium forthcoming utilization of forcefulness prices. In oppositeness to scenarios with stochastic assets costs for a restricted sort of technologies, the body of stochastic forcefulness prices direct affects every parts of the forcefulness system. Robust elements of equivocation strategies allow crescendo utilization of husbandly forcefulness carriers, the ingest of CHP and regularise modify and the covering of added energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific profession portfolios, i.e., assorted equivocation options, crapper drive ontogeny forcefulness mercantilism between the regions in comparability with the deterministic case.
Keywords: Energy systems model; Scenarios; Stochastic optimization; Energy prices; Risk hedging
by Volker Krey 1, Dag Martinsen 1 and Hermann-Josef designer 2
1. Institute of Energy Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEF-STE), Research Centre Jülich, 52425 Jülich, Germany; Telephone: +49 2461 613588; fax: +49 2461 612540
2. LEE - Energy Systems and Energy Economics, river University Bochum, 44780 Bochum, Germany
Energy via Elsevier Science Direct www.ScienceDirect.com
Volume 32, Issue 12; December, 2007; Pages 2340-2349
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2007.05.013